We’re one month away from the primary (May 8 if you’ve been living under a rock)! And that means that it’s time to evaluate some candidates and Amendments and see what may happen next. Since I know a little about NC politics (as much as any NC native) I feel compelled to share my opinions about what will happen on this fateful day in May.
DISCLAIMER: The opinions given in this article are my opinions and not the opinions of the Carolina Review. Just so we’re clear. Really really clear.
The race for the Republican nominee is still on, even if it is slowing down. But, if Santorum keeps on, it may make NC’s primary actually matter nationally. According to Public Policy Polling, Romney and Santorum are tied for at 30%, with Gingrich at 19% and Paul bringing up the rear at 13%.
Of course, PPP also has Mitt Romney currently losing to Obama in the general election by three points (49-46), but it’s early in the season, so we’ll see what happens. As I observed when Obama unveiled his NCAA bracket this year North Carolina is a major swing state. Obama is hoping to capitalize on Charlotte hosting the DNC and his winning the state last time to push him to another victory, but I don’t think Romney is going to give up easily. Expect to see both of them in North Carolina in the run up to the general election, and a lot of money being spent here.
Since the announcement by Bev Perdue that she wasn’t running for reelection Democrats have been reeling, trying to find a replacement candidate that would stand a chance against the overwhelmingly likely Republican nominee Pat McCory (he’ll always be “Mayor Pat” to me!). The North Carolina Young Democrats elected Lt Governor Walter Dalton in their straw poll vote, but PPP once again has polling results favoring Bob Etheridge, apparently due to his greater name recognition (whatever that means, as neither one ring a bell with me). According to my sources, his name recognition comes being the District 2 Representative, but I think that it should be from this gem of a video. Anyway, it seems that most people are largely ambivalent about the Democratic nominees, and it seems that democratic nominee will also have to decide whether or not to ride the coattails of the Obama campaign, a la Bev and get elected mostly because of straight party ballots, or if they will actually campaign and get their name out there.
This is why my disclaimer was added, because I am personally against the Amendment, and would love to see it fail in flames, but I’m unsure about what’s actually going to happen. Hopefully, it will fail. But PPP is skeptical, pointing out that 58% of NC voters support the Amendment. The most surprising note was that Independents (like me!) were not in favor of the Amendement; bringing me to think that the best thing for Republicans who want to be reelected is to stay away from Amendment 1. The Independents may have swung right in 2010, but 2012 is a new year and a new election.