Well guys, Barack Obama is now officially the president of the United States.
For my first post here, I am going to make a few predictions about how much “change” Obama is going to bring, and we’ll see how accurate they are in the future. So, over the next four years, the following will happen:
- American troops will be engaged in heavier and heavier fighting in Afghanistan, causing greater casualties amongst both the our forces and the Afghan civilian population.
- With the exception of Britain, most European nations will continue to refuse to send any substantial amount of forces to Afghanistan.
- American troops will stay in Iraq for at least the next several years.
- Sometime in the next four years, Obama will order a military attack on at least one country we are not already at war in (every president since Eisenhower has done this). My odds are on Somalia, Pakistan or Iran, in that order.
- The media will turn on Obama and begin to chew him up just like they have every president in recent history before him. The media loved Bill Clinton in 1992, but the love definitely wasn’t there in 1998. The media loved George W. Bush in 2000, and we all know how that affair turned out. The media always turn on you. It’s the nature of the beast.
- America will continue to be heavily involved in the affairs of other nations both diplomatically and militarily, and will pursue an internationalist foreign policy, just like it has ever since the FDR administration.
- America will continue to strongly support Israel, both with foreign aid and in the United Nations.
- Europeans will still not really like Americans, and they won’t fall into line and do what we want just because they like Obama.
We may have a new president who promises the sky, but all new presidents promise the sky. The truth of the matter is, on many issues, the president can’t change anything. It’s not because he doesn’t have the power. It’s because sometimes there’s only one thing you can do that makes sense. America will remain involved in the rest of the world because American economic and physical security requires co-operation and strong ties among nations. America will continue to carry most of the load in Afghanistan because America has no choice but to fight this war. America will probably end up protecting its interests in another nation by military force because it will be come necessary to do so and any president in recent history would have given the same order if he were in office. Continental Europe and America will still bicker because continental Europe and America are different culturally and are growing more distant from each other.
It’s just the way it is, and it’s a product of forces and events far greater than the influence of one man to add or detract.