Preliminary GDP Report

This morning, the BEA published its preliminary report on third quarter GDP. The report estimated a .3% decrease in GDP during the third quarter. Of course, preliminary reports are subject to revision as more information is accumulated, and they are almost always adjusted a few tenths of a percent up or down. But, even assuming that this figure is correct, our economic situation is hardly dire. Listening to the media and the Democrats (as well as, unfortunately, many Republicans), you might assume that the BEA is off by a decimal point (or two). Our economy should be stronger, but this almost negligible downturn does not merit the sort of economic overreaction that we’ve seen from the Bush administration and Congress. We would need to face another quarter of decreasing GDP to even enter a recession.

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