After both conventions, the polls are all back to where they were two weeks ago. Rasmussen, which had shown a six point Obama bounce earlier this week, has Obama up 46-45%. Gallup has Obama’s lead shrinking from 8% to 2%. CBS has the race tied at 42%. [Sunday Update: Rasmussen has the race tied at 46%, and Gallup has McCain up 48-45%.]
McCain’s speech- As I wrote during our coverage, I don’t think McCain’s very good at speaking, though he is an effective speaker (I hope the distinction is clear). Further, nomination speeches are rarely memorable (most memorable speeches come during inaugurals, trips to the Brandenburg Gate, etc.) and his dragged on for a bit too long. That said, I’d like to give a tempered approval of McCain’s speech. It reinforced the populist, reformist and maverick narratives. There were some things missing (more comprehensive middle-class tax cuts and such), but it seems like people might start being swayed by McCain’s more concrete vision for Changing Washington.
I think the convention persuasively repudiated the silly notion that McCain is the second coming of GWB (which I’ve been calling for; see below).
During Cindy McCain’s speech, she asked, “How about that Sarah Palin?” My thoughts exactly.
It’s a bit early to start picking favorites for a McCain cabinet (Lieberman would work as a Secretary of State, Fred Thompson would make an excellent Attorney General…), but McCain-Palin certainly has the momentum right now. In this amnesia-riddled election cycle (anyone still worried about McCain’s housing gaffe, once the World’s Worst Quote Ever Ever?), that might not matter very much, but things are looking up. The Evans-Novak Report (affiliated with Robert Novak) even predicts that McCain will surge ahead in the coming weeks.